Operational policy development for dynamic restoration of lakes in a changing climate; application of innovative hedging rules in a system dynamics platform

Abstract Growing agricultural and domestic demand exacerbates water shortages globally, creating substantial environmental challenges, especially in lakes wetlands ecosystems. This paper presents a stationary policy to restore sustain the level natural using new version of hedging rule that accounts for time-dependent allocation municipal sectors under different climate change projections. The proposed framework is demonstrated via operational derived rehabilitate Lake Urmia Iran. To simplify modeling process, all reservoirs basin are replaced with an equivalent reservoir (ER) allocate available between potential users. ER then operated set rules staged restoration sustainability lake while meeting other stakeholder objectives. A system dynamics-based model used simulate multi-sectoral built-in optimization algorithm develop most desirable multi-period policy. lake-level condition investigated by producing duration curves, performance indices (reliability, resiliency, vulnerability) assessing supply basin. results indicate highly effective restoring provides accounting dynamic variation fluctuations inflow due variability change.